Published November 12, 2026 · By
Gas prices across the United States have dropped below $4 a gallon, giving drivers their first real break at the pump in months. AAA's national average for regular gasoline stood at $3.94 on Wednesday, November 11, down 41 cents from a month earlier and about 18 cents from a week before. The decline comes as crude oil retreats from recent highs and as the market adjusts to more oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Even so, gas prices remain far above where they were a year ago, and diesel is still well over $6. Here is what the latest data shows, why gas prices are falling, how officials and analysts are describing the drop, and what it means for your budget.
Gas Prices Fall Below $4: The Latest Numbers
According to AAA's daily fuel survey, the national average for a gallon of regular was $3.943 on November 11. That compares with $3.979 the day before, $4.124 a week earlier and $4.359 a month earlier. A year ago, the same gallon cost $3.072, so drivers are still paying roughly 87 cents more than in November 2025.
Other grades followed the same path. Mid-grade averaged $4.477 and premium $4.871. Diesel averaged $6.131, down from $6.277 a month ago but still about 64% above its level a year ago, when it cost $3.748. AAA's records show diesel set an all-time high of $6.528 on September 22, 2026.
GasBuddy, which tracks millions of station prices, reported a national average of $3.96 in its weekly update on November 9, down 15.9 cents in a week. It said this was the first time the average had fallen below $4 since August. The most common price nationwide was $3.99, and the median was $3.82.
Where gas is cheapest and most expensive
State-by-state differences in gas prices remain wide. AAA data compiled by MLive showed Texas at about $3.42 and Georgia at about $3.43 on November 11, among the lowest in the country. California led at roughly $5.67, followed by Hawaii at $5.62, Nevada at $5.00 and Washington at $4.94.
Some Midwest states saw the sharpest weekly declines. GasBuddy said Michigan fell 35.4 cents in a week, Colorado 31.2 cents, Ohio 29.4 cents and Wisconsin 28.7 cents.
Why Gas Prices Are Dropping Now
Analysts point to several forces pushing gas prices lower. The first is crude oil. GasBuddy reported that Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell about 16% in the week before November 9, its steepest weekly decline since the start of the pandemic. Brent traded near $94 a barrel early that Monday, compared with about $108 a week earlier, while U.S. benchmark WTI fell from about $99 to about $87.
The second factor is seasonal. Fuel demand usually eases in the fall, refiners finish maintenance and raise output, and stations switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline. In a November 11 fact-check, PolitiFact quoted energy analyst Hugh Daigle as saying, "I think the overall trend is mostly normal seasonal fluctuations," while noting that this year's drop is slightly larger than usual.
The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz
The third factor is geopolitics. Gas prices climbed sharply after the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. The national average peaked at about $4.48 on September 21, according to figures cited by PolitiFact. Since then, gas prices have fallen every week, based on Energy Information Administration data.
GasBuddy said more oil has been moving through the strait in recent days. It also noted that President Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran were highly unlikely while talks continue. At the same time, the company reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio ruled out an imminent breakthrough and that tanker incidents near the strait have continued.
Gas Prices and Politics: What Each Side Has Said
The drop arrived days after the November 3 midterm elections, and some social media posts claimed fuel companies had raised gas prices to hurt Republicans. PolitiFact rated that claim False on November 11, saying the decline matches seasonal patterns and changes in global oil supply. GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, wrote: "Many will assume the election had something to do with it, but that's a myth."
De Haan added that the election results may still send a message to Washington to focus on affordability. Some analysts quoted by PolitiFact said the outcome could have shaped oil-market expectations, though they did not describe it as the main driver.
Gas prices have been a political issue all year. When the national average first topped $4 in late March, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said prices would fall back once the military operation against Iran was complete, according to Fox News. Democrats, including Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called the higher prices a broken promise on lowering costs. Republicans, including Rep. Richard Hudson, pointed to the party's tax cuts as a way to put money back in household budgets. Neither party's leadership had issued a detailed statement on the November decline in the sources reviewed for this article.
What the Government Forecast Says About Gas Prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10. The forecast was completed on November 5, before the latest drop in crude, so it does not reflect events after that date.
EIA projects regular gasoline will average $3.89 a gallon for all of 2026, up from $3.10 in 2025. For 2027, it expects an average of $3.73, which is higher than its previous forecast of $3.56. Diesel is projected to average $5.25 this year and $5.03 next year.
On crude oil, EIA expects Brent to average about $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027, falling toward $77 by late 2027. The agency cited falling global inventories, attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and higher freight costs as reasons prices have stayed elevated. It assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027.
What It Means for You
For a typical driver, the recent decline in gas prices adds up. A household that buys about 15 gallons a week would spend roughly $6 less per week at November 11 prices than it did a month earlier, based on AAA's averages. That is our own estimate, and actual savings depend on where you live and how much you drive.
Practical steps to save at the pump
- Compare stations. GasBuddy found the cheapest 10% of stations averaged about $3.16, while the most expensive 10% averaged $5.47. A short detour can matter.
- Watch diesel separately. Diesel remains above $6, which affects truck owners, farmers and anyone using heating oil.
- Plan for holiday travel. Analysts say gas prices could stay below $4 in the coming weeks, but oil markets remain sensitive to news from the Middle East.
- Review your budget. Lower fuel costs can offset other rising expenses, such as winter energy bills.
Energy costs are also rising elsewhere in the household budget. Our recent report on winter heating costs explains why heating oil users face much higher bills this season. If you are weighing a new car, our guide to hybrid vs. gas car costs shows how fuel prices affect the break-even math.
Indirect effects on prices you pay
Fuel costs feed into what you pay for groceries, deliveries and travel. MLive noted that high diesel prices have strained farmers, shippers and heating-oil customers. If diesel continues to ease, some of that pressure on goods prices could lessen over time. In our analysis, though, the relief may be slow to reach store shelves while diesel stays well above last year's level.
What to Watch Next
Several developments could move gas prices in the weeks ahead. Talks involving Iran and shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain the biggest swing factor for crude oil. Weekly EIA inventory reports will show whether U.S. supplies of gasoline and diesel are recovering. GasBuddy noted that distillate stocks, which include diesel, were about 13% below their five-year average in late October.
EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for December 8, and it will be the first government forecast to include the November decline in crude. Until then, drivers can follow AAA's daily averages to track how gas prices change before the Thanksgiving travel rush.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Sources: AAA Fuel Prices (gasprices.aaa.com); GasBuddy weekly analysis, November 9, 2026; PolitiFact, November 11, 2026; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 10, 2026; Rigzone, November 11, 2026; MLive, November 11, 2026; Fox News, March 31, 2026.
