Published November 12, 2026 · By
The Alaska Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is still undecided nine days after the Nov. 3 election, but the latest ballot count has widened Peltola's narrow lead. On Wednesday night, state election officials added 5,618 more ballots, leaving Peltola at 48.73% and Sullivan at 47.13%, according to the Alaska Beacon.
The same day, an Anchorage judge turned down a request from Peltola's campaign for a list of voters whose absentee ballots were rejected. With neither candidate above 50%, the contest appears headed for ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18. Here is what happened, what each side has said and what it could mean for you.
Alaska Senate Race: Where the Count Stands
The Alaska Senate race count has moved slowly, because absentee and early ballots are processed over several days after Election Day. The trend this week has been steady. On Tuesday afternoon, Nov. 10, Peltola led by about 2,500 votes with roughly 76% of the expected vote counted, The Associated Press reported in a story published by PBS NewsHour.
By Wednesday morning, about 84% of the vote had been counted and her lead had grown to about 4,250 votes, ICT (Indian Country Today) reported. After the Wednesday night update, Newsweek put the count at about 86% as of early Thursday, with Peltola still narrowly ahead. In the latest percentages from the Alaska Beacon, the gap between the two candidates is 1.6 percentage points (that figure is our own arithmetic from the published shares).
Why no winner has been declared
In the Alaska Senate race, as in other state contests, a candidate needs more than half of the votes to win outright in the first round. Peltola remains about one percentage point short of that mark, according to ICT. Sullivan noted in a statement that tens of thousands of ballots were still outstanding and said he would "look forward to a complete and accurate count."
Newsweek reported that the Alaska Senate race is the last U.S. Senate contest of the 2026 midterms that has not been called.
Key Dates in the Alaska Senate Race
Several deadlines will shape the rest of the Alaska Senate race. These dates come from reporting by PBS NewsHour, ICT and the Alaska Beacon, and voters can confirm them with the Alaska Division of Elections.
- About Nov. 13: Absentee ballots mailed within the U.S. must arrive within 10 days of Election Day to be counted.
- Nov. 18: The final day to receive absentee ballots mailed from outside the country, 15 days after the election, and the scheduled date for ranked-choice tabulation if no one has a majority.
- Nov. 25: The state's target date for certifying results.
- Within five days of certification: A candidate may request a recount. Recounts are automatic only in a tie.
How ranked-choice tabulation works here
Voters in the Alaska Senate race could rank up to two of the four candidates on their ballot, ICT reported. If no candidate tops 50%, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to each voter's next choice. The process repeats until one candidate has a majority of the remaining ballots.
The 'Other Dan Sullivan' on the Ballot
One unusual feature of the Alaska Senate race is a second candidate with a nearly identical name: Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher. The Justice Department, acting at President Donald Trump's direction, sued to block certification if the incumbent senator loses, citing possible voter confusion between the two names, according to ICT. A federal judge dismissed that lawsuit, and the department has appealed.
The second Sullivan's voters could matter once rankings are counted. ICT, citing a New York Times analysis published Nov. 5, reported that about two-thirds of Dan J. Sullivan's supporters ranked a second choice and that most of those picked Peltola. The same analysis found that voters who ranked Sen. Sullivan first rarely chose Peltola second.
Judge Rejects Peltola Campaign's Ballot Request
The Alaska Senate race also moved into state court this week. On Friday, Nov. 6, the Peltola campaign committee, Alaskans for Mary, sued the Division of Elections. It asked for the names of voters whose absentee ballots had been rejected and the reasons, before certification. The campaign said it wanted the information to help ensure an accurate count and that it was not trying to slow the process.
Peltola attorney Abha Khanna argued that the records are public and similar to what election observers can already see at ballot review sites, ICT reported. The state's Department of Law, representing the division, said counting was still underway, that the requested records were preliminary rather than public, and that producing them on short notice would risk voter privacy.
What Judge Thomas Matthews decided
On Wednesday afternoon, Anchorage Superior Court Judge Thomas Matthews ruled that the division does not have to produce the report during the count, the Alaska Beacon reported. He found that the information is not a public record that must be disclosed now and that election workers are busy processing ballots. He also said confidential voter details could not reasonably be redacted in time.
"The timing of the Campaign's request could simply not be worse," Matthews wrote, according to Newsweek. The state noted that a ballot's rejection status can change until certification, after which the division must notify affected voters. A list of rejected absentee ballots is usually published weeks after certification. The Peltola campaign did not immediately say whether it would appeal.
What Each Side Is Saying
The two campaigns have described the Alaska Senate race count in different terms. Sullivan's campaign has emphasized waiting for every valid ballot to be tallied, as reflected in his statement calling for a complete and accurate count. Peltola's campaign called the latest batches of votes a turning point and said it had expected the race to be contested, ICT reported. It also said the Trump administration and the Washington establishment were trying to challenge the results.
State election officials have stressed that all figures released so far are preliminary and that the official outcome will come only with certification.
Other Alaska races
Alaska's governor's race is also unresolved, alongside the Alaska Senate race. As of Tuesday, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led Republican Bernadette Wilson 49.6% to 28.9%, PBS NewsHour reported, just short of an outright majority. The Anchorage Daily News reported Wednesday that Kreiss-Tomkins and Republican Rep. Nick Begich, who is seeking reelection to the U.S. House, kept their leads in the latest counts.
What the Alaska Senate Race Means for the Senate
Before the Mississippi result, the AP reported that Democrats were on track to hold 54 Senate seats in January, with possible gains in Alaska and Mississippi. The AP has since called the Mississippi Senate race for Democrat Scott Colom, which Saxo Bank's market commentary said brings the expected Democratic majority to 55 seats. A Peltola win would make it 56. A Sullivan win would keep the seat in Republican hands.
Our analysis: Either way, Democrats are expected to control both chambers of Congress in January, since the AP also reported a House majority of 255 Democratic seats. The size of the Senate majority still matters, because it affects how easily the chamber can confirm nominees, pass budget measures and advance other legislation.
What It Means for You
For most Americans, the Alaska Senate race outcome will be felt through policy rather than on Election Night. Here is how it could affect your wallet.
If you voted in Alaska
- Check your ballot status through the Alaska Division of Elections website once updates are posted.
- If your absentee ballot is rejected, the division must notify you after certification, according to the state's filing in court.
- If you mailed a ballot from overseas, it must arrive by Nov. 18 to count.
If you live elsewhere
Our analysis: A larger Senate majority could change the odds for legislation on taxes, health care costs, energy permits and federal spending in 2027. It also affects how quickly the Senate acts on presidential nominees, including officials who oversee banking rules, trade and benefits programs. Watching the final count is one way to gauge how much room either party will have on those issues.
Any new laws would still need to pass both chambers and be signed by the president. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
What Happens Next
More ballots are expected to be counted before the Nov. 18 deadline for overseas ballots. If no one reaches 50%, ranked-choice tabulation will follow that day, and the state aims to certify the Alaska Senate race results by Nov. 25. The Justice Department's appeal over the dual Sullivan names and any further action by the Peltola campaign could still add legal steps after that.
We will update our Alaska Senate race coverage as official results are released.
Sources: Alaska Beacon (via Yahoo News), Newsweek, ICT (Indian Country Today), PBS NewsHour/The Associated Press, Anchorage Daily News, Saxo Bank market commentary, Alaska Division of Elections (elections.alaska.gov).
