Published November 12, 2026 · By
Heating costs for the average American household are projected to climb 7.1% this winter, according to new estimates from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), the group that represents the state officials who run federal home energy aid. The forecast, reported on Wednesday, Nov. 11, puts the typical bill for the season at about $1,002, roughly $66 more than last winter.
The increase in heating costs is uneven. Families who heat with fuel oil face by far the steepest jump, while homes that rely on natural gas may see little change. Here is what the new numbers show, how they compare with the federal government's own outlook, what lawmakers are saying, and what it could mean for your budget.
Heating Costs Forecast: What NEADA Reported
NEADA's projection of heating costs covers all major home heating fuels and estimates an average winter bill of $1,002 per household. That is an increase of about 7.1% compared with the 2025-26 winter, according to reporting by The Hill and Agence France-Presse (AFP).
The headline figure hides big differences by fuel. NEADA expects households that use heating oil to spend about $2,977 this winter, a rise of 70.2% from a year earlier. Electricity heating costs are projected to rise about 6%, and propane about 5%. For natural gas, the most common heating fuel in the country, NEADA expects costs to stay roughly where they were last winter.
The new estimate is slightly lower than NEADA's September projection, which had put the average bill at $1,030, an increase of 8.7%. The group noted that some heating prices have eased recently, but it said families should not assume prices will keep falling.
Why heating oil is surging
According to AFP, the spike in heating oil prices is tied to the war involving Iran and to refinery outages; oil industry estimates cited in the report suggest about 10% of global refining capacity is offline. Mark Wolfe, NEADA's executive director, said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile, which makes oil prices hard to forecast. He said it is "prudent to assume" that heating oil prices will stay elevated through the winter and urged states to plan accordingly.
Heating oil is a regional issue. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that only about 3% of American households use it as their main heating fuel, most of them in the Northeast. For those families, however, the dollar increase can be large.
How the Federal Outlook on Heating Costs Compares
The federal government publishes its own forecast. In its 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook, released in October, the EIA projected a mixed picture for heating costs between November and March:
- Natural gas: about $640 per household, down 9% from last winter.
- Electricity: about $1,196, up 4%, driven by roughly 3% higher residential power prices and slightly higher use.
- Propane: about $1,246, down 3%.
- Heating oil: about $2,115, up 21%, with the average price per gallon expected to rise 34%.
The EIA and NEADA use different methods and time frames, so their numbers do not match exactly. Both, however, point in the same direction: higher bills for oil and electric heat, and stable or lower bills for natural gas. The EIA said heating oil prices are rising because global production of distillate fuels fell as refining was reduced, which raised import costs and export demand. It also noted that U.S. distillate inventories are low heading into the season.
Weather remains the wild card. The EIA expects national temperatures to be similar to last winter, with a warmer Northeast and a colder West, but said a strong El Niño could push conditions far from the forecast.
Electricity prices in the inflation data
Recent government data line up with the forecasts. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' October Consumer Price Index, cited by The Hill, electricity prices rose 0.9% in October, the largest monthly increase since April, while prices for utility gas service fell for a third straight month. The October report also showed overall inflation running hotter than expected, a development that has raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
Heating Costs and the Debate in Congress
Energy prices and heating costs are also part of a policy fight on Capitol Hill. On Tuesday, the Senate advanced the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act in a procedural vote, according to The Hill. The bill is aimed at speeding up federal permitting for energy and infrastructure projects.
Supporters say the measure would help lower energy bills. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., wrote on X that it would deliver billions of dollars in electricity bill savings for families.
Others in his party disagree. A spokesperson for House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York told Politico that the bill "falls short." The Congressional Progressive Caucus said on X that the measure would undermine Tribal sovereignty and roll back key environmental laws. The House has not yet acted on the bill.
Federal heating aid is another point of discussion. Earlier this year, NEADA asked Congress for $3 billion in emergency funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), citing higher crude oil prices. Neither The Hill nor AFP reported a final decision on additional LIHEAP money for this winter.
What It Means for You
How much your heating costs change this winter depends mostly on the fuel you use and where you live. Here is a practical breakdown based on the forecasts above.
If you heat with oil
You face the largest increase in heating costs. Consider asking your supplier about budget plans that spread payments over several months, price caps, or prepaid contracts, and compare offers from more than one dealer. Booking a furnace tune-up early can improve efficiency and help prevent costly mid-winter breakdowns.
If you heat with electricity
Electric heating costs are expected to rise modestly. Check whether your utility offers time-of-use rates or level billing, which can smooth out large winter bills. Sealing drafts around windows and doors and lowering the thermostat when you are asleep or away are low-cost steps that can reduce use.
If you heat with natural gas or propane
Forecasts suggest stable or slightly lower heating costs, but a colder-than-normal winter could change that quickly. Using a budget billing plan now can protect you from a surprise spike in January or February.
If you need help paying
LIHEAP helps eligible low-income households with heating costs and is run by states, tribes and territories. You can find your local office through the National Energy Assistance Referral hotline at 1-866-674-6327. Many utilities also offer hardship programs and payment arrangements, and several states have rules that limit winter shutoffs. Contact your provider before you fall behind, since options are often wider early on.
Budget for the full season
Our analysis: an extra $66 over a five-month season works out to about $13 a month for the average household, which is manageable for many families. For oil-heated homes, the projected NEADA total of $2,977 would mean roughly $595 a month from November through March, a far heavier load. Setting aside money now for heating costs, or trimming other spending, may help. With mortgage rates also moving up after the latest inflation report, as we covered in our story on the recent mortgage rate jump, homeowners may want to review their full housing budget.
What Comes Next
The EIA will update its short-term energy forecast on Dec. 8, which may revise its heating cost estimates. Developments in the Middle East, refinery repairs and the weather will all shape the heating costs Americans actually pay. In Congress, the permitting bill's next steps and any action on home energy assistance remain open questions.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Sources: The Hill (Nov. 11, 2026); Agence France-Presse via 24 News HD (Nov. 12, 2026); U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 and Today in Energy (Oct. 2026); National Energy Assistance Directors Association (neada.org).
