Published November 14, 2026 · By
A Canada trade deal remains possible, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Friday, striking a positive note on talks with Ottawa that have been stalled since August. In a CNBC interview reported by Reuters, Bessent said he was optimistic the United States could reach agreements with both Canada and Mexico. He gave no terms or timeline, and his comments came one day after President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on Mexican goods over a northbound migrant caravan.
Here is what was said, where the tariffs stand, how each side sees the talks, and what a possible deal could mean for prices and jobs in the United States.
Bessent Says a Canada Trade Deal Is Possible
Speaking on CNBC on Friday, November 13, Bessent said: "I am optimistic that we can get trade deals with Canada and Mexico." According to Reuters, he did not elaborate and did not address Trump's warning from Thursday that he would double tariffs on Mexico if it did not stop a group of more than 1,000 migrants walking toward the U.S. border.
The remarks followed comments a day earlier from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. On CNBC on Thursday, Greer confirmed that Canadian and American officials had discussed a deal in the past few days, The Hub reported. He declined to set a deadline, saying the substance of an agreement matters more than its timing, and noted that Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speak regularly.
Greer also said he agreed with calls for more certainty on tariffs, and he pointed to legal challenges brought by Democratic state attorneys general as one source of instability. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said last week that a Canada trade deal could come before the end of 2026, according to The Hub.
Where the Canada Trade Deal Talks Stand
Canada trade deal negotiations broke down in August. On August 21, Carney suspended talks, and on August 22 the United States imposed 50% tariffs under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, including dairy, alcohol and auto-related products, according to The Hub. Canada's counter-tariffs on about C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods took effect September 8.
Each side describes the breakdown differently. Carney has argued the U.S. terms were insufficient and touched on Canadian sovereignty, citing cultural protections, French-language rules and Canada's freedom to trade with other countries. Greer has said Washington negotiated in good faith and that Ottawa turned the offer down. Carney said in early November that talks had intensified and that there was progress on some sticking points, though differences remain.
The tariff layers now in place
Canadian goods face several overlapping U.S. duties. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, autos and lumber remain in effect. A 10% Section 301 tariff tied to forced-labor enforcement took effect July 24 but exempts goods that comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The Section 338 duties carry no such exemption, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Trump has also threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel to 50% on January 1, 2027, The Hub reported. Greer has noted that gas, oil and a large share of food imports are not tariffed.
The USMCA review clock
The broader backdrop is the North American trade pact. At the first mandatory joint review on July 1, 2026, the United States declined to extend the USMCA, which triggers annual reviews. The agreement stays in force in the meantime and runs until 2036 unless the three countries agree to extend it. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative opened a public comment process in October, with submissions due January 12, 2027. Details on the pact are posted on the USTR website.
Changes to the USMCA itself would need implementing legislation from Congress. A narrower bilateral tariff agreement with Canada would not necessarily require a vote, according to The Hub's analysis.
Mexico Tariff Threat Adds Pressure
Bessent's comments landed less than 24 hours after Trump's warning on Mexico. The president said he would double tariffs on Mexican goods unless Mexico stopped the caravan, a threat we covered in our report on Trump's Mexico tariffs warning. Reuters noted that Bessent's interview did not mention the threat, and none of the reports reviewed for this article included a formal response from Mexico's government to Bessent's remarks.
In our analysis, the Canada and Mexico disputes involve different tariffs and different issues, even though both countries share the USMCA. That means progress on a Canada trade deal does not automatically settle disputes with Mexico, and the reverse is also true.
How Both Parties Are Reacting
The Canada trade deal talks are unfolding as Congress prepares for a change in control. Republicans lost both the House and the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, The Hub noted. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has named ending tariffs as a priority, and Michigan Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, has called the trade fight with Canada "insane."
The administration has defended its approach as a way to protect American supply chains and press trading partners for better terms. Greer has argued that the U.S. priority is securing domestic production, while Ottawa wants a return to largely unrestricted cross-border trade. Overriding a presidential veto on any tariff measure would require 67 senators and 290 House members.
Legal questions also hang over any Canada trade deal. In February, the Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs, pushing the White House to rely on other trade laws. Importers are now seeking refunds of those duties, as we detailed in our story on tariff refunds for 330,000 importers.
What a Canada Trade Deal Could Mean for You
Canada is one of the largest U.S. trading partners, so the outcome of the Canada trade deal talks reaches household budgets in several ways. The following points are our own analysis based on the reported facts, not predictions about the talks.
Prices at the store and the dealership
The 50% duties cover products such as dairy, alcohol and auto-related goods. Importers often pass at least part of tariff costs on to buyers, so items like Canadian cheese, spirits and some car parts may cost more than they did before August. A Canada trade deal that lowers those duties could ease that pressure over time, while the January 1 threat on vehicles and steel, if carried out, could push costs the other way.
Jobs and local economies
Auto plants, farms and border businesses in states such as Michigan, Ohio, New York and Washington depend on cross-border supply chains. Canadian counter-tariffs affect U.S. exporters selling into Canada. Workers in these industries may want to watch the talks closely, since a Canada trade deal or a new round of duties would affect orders and hiring.
Inflation, rates and your savings
Tariffs feed into broader price measures, and inflation data influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. Producer prices recently rose at their fastest annual pace in nearly four years. Any change in trade policy could shift the outlook for mortgage, auto loan and credit card rates, so it may be worth reviewing variable-rate debt and comparing prices on big-ticket purchases before making decisions.
What to watch next
- Any official statement from USTR, the White House or Ottawa on terms of a Canada trade deal.
- Whether the threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles, parts and steel take effect January 1, 2027.
- Mexico's response to the doubled-tariff threat over the migrant caravan.
- The January 12, 2027, deadline for public comments in the USMCA review.
- Moves by the incoming Congress on tariff authority.
Bottom Line
For now, a Canada trade deal remains a goal rather than an agreement. Bessent has voiced optimism, Greer has confirmed recent contacts, and Carney has reported progress, but no terms or timetable have been announced. Until a Canada trade deal is signed, existing tariffs on both sides remain in place, and higher duties on Canadian vehicles, parts and steel have been threatened for January unless the two governments reach an understanding first.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Sources: Reuters (via CNBC interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Nov. 13, 2026); The Hub, "U.S. trade chief confirms recent talks with Canada but sets no deadline for a deal" (Nov. 13, 2026); Diplomacy and Law analysis of Canada-U.S. talks (Nov. 13, 2026); Office of the U.S. Trade Representative; Congressional Research Service.
