Published November 14, 2026 · By
Mary Peltola widened her lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to about 5,800 votes on Friday as Alaska kept counting ballots in its closely watched U.S. Senate race. Mary Peltola, a Democrat and former congresswoman, had 125,157 votes to Sullivan's 119,357 in the Associated Press count cited by Democracy Docket, or roughly 49.2% of the vote. That is just under the 50% mark she needs to win outright, so the race has not been called and could still go to a ranked-choice tabulation next week.
Mary Peltola Lead Grows as Alaska Counts Ballots
The latest numbers came after a large batch of absentee and early ballots was added Thursday. According to The Hill, Mary Peltola picked up roughly 5,000 newly counted votes, and her lead stood at about 5,800 votes as of 9:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday. That was up from 3,975 votes a day earlier.
The race has moved back and forth during the count. On Wednesday, local outlet Your Alaska Link reported that the Mary Peltola margin briefly shrank from 4,250 votes to 3,975. Friday's update reversed that trend. Decision Desk HQ, cited by The Hill, estimated that more than 83% of the expected vote had been counted and said it had not yet called the contest.
The full vote breakdown
Four candidates appeared on the general election ballot under Alaska's top-four system. Based on the AP figures reported Friday, the totals were:
- Mary Peltola (D): 125,157 votes
- Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the incumbent: 119,357 votes
- Gerald L. Heikes (R): 5,490 votes
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (R): 4,199 votes
By our own calculation from those figures, the incumbent holds about 47% of the four-candidate total, while Heikes and Sullivan Jr. together hold close to 4%. Democracy Docket noted that the Mary Peltola lead over both men named Sullivan combined was 1,601 votes. Final totals will change as the remaining ballots are counted.
Why Mary Peltola Still Needs to Clear 50%
Alaska uses an open top-four primary followed by a ranked-choice general election. If no candidate wins more than half of the first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and those ballots move to each voter's next choice. That process repeats until one candidate passes 50%.
This matters because the two lower-placed candidates are both Republicans. If the race goes to tabulation, many of their voters' second choices could shift toward Sullivan. Democracy Docket has highlighted that the Mary Peltola lead over the combined total of both Sullivans gives her a cushion, but that cushion is smaller than her lead over the incumbent alone.
Key dates in the count
The Alaska Division of Elections has set the following schedule, according to its official election website:
- November 13: deadline to receive absentee ballots mailed from within the United States and its territories
- November 18: final regional count of absentee and questioned ballots, and the start of ranked-choice tabulation in races where no candidate tops 50%
- November 25: target date to certify the election
The Center Square reported that ballots from overseas voters can be accepted through November 18. The Division's homepage does not list a separate overseas deadline, so voters with questions should check with the state directly.
What Each Side Has Said
The Mary Peltola campaign has projected confidence. In a post on X cited by The Hill, the campaign wrote: "When every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be Alaska's next United States Senator." The campaign also described a win as nearly certain.
President Donald Trump has weighed in on the race. According to The Hill, he suggested that votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who has no relation to the senator, should be credited to the incumbent, saying there was no other fair solution. Under Alaska's ranked-choice system, votes for eliminated candidates move to others only through the tabulation process, based on each voter's own rankings.
Coverage reviewed for this article did not include a new public statement from Sullivan's campaign on Friday's numbers. Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, told Fox News earlier in the week that "Friday is really the big day" for the count, as reported by Your Alaska Link.
Legal fights over the count
The race has also drawn lawsuits. The Center Square reported that Superior Court Judge Matthew Thomas denied the Mary Peltola campaign's request for a list of absentee voters whose ballots were rejected, records the campaign said in a court filing it needed to help make sure ballots are counted. The Division of Elections has posted a ruling in its favor on the matter.
Separately, The Hill reported that a Trump administration lawsuit that sought to block certification of the race was dismissed. Democracy Docket reported that the Elias Law Group represents the Peltola campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in that litigation.
Jason Snead, executive director of the conservative Honest Elections Project, told The Center Square that in an ordinary election, a race with this margin would likely be called by now.
Background on the Race
Sullivan, first elected in 2014 when he unseated Democrat Mark Begich, won a second term in 2020 with about 54% of the vote. Mary Peltola entered the 2026 race in January after serving in the U.S. House, where she represented Alaska's at-large district. She advanced from the August 18 top-four primary along with Sullivan, Heikes and Sullivan Jr.
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is a former U.S. Forest Service employee. The state had tried to remove him from the ballot, but an Anchorage Superior Court reversed that decision. His shared name with the senator became a point of dispute during the campaign.
We covered the earlier stages of this contest in our report on the Alaska Senate race ballot count. Alaska's results are also unfolding alongside a fight over who will lead Senate Democrats, which we detailed in our article on Chuck Schumer's leadership challenge.
What Mary Peltola's Lead Means for the Senate
Democrats are set to take the Senate majority when the new Congress begins in January, as Federal News Network noted in its reporting on committee leadership changes. Our analysis: the Alaska seat would therefore affect the size of that majority rather than which party controls the chamber. A larger margin can make it easier for the majority party to pass bills, confirm nominees and absorb defections on close votes.
A wider majority could shape upcoming debates on federal spending, the December 11 funding deadline, health care costs and tax policy. A narrower one would give individual senators from either party more leverage. Neither outcome guarantees how specific bills will fare.
What It Means for You
For Alaskans, the most important step now is making sure your ballot counts in the race between Mary Peltola and Sullivan. If you voted absentee and received a notice about a problem with your ballot, contact the Division of Elections quickly, because the final regional count is set for November 18. You can check your ballot status through the Division of Elections website.
For Americans in other states, whether Mary Peltola or Sullivan wins will influence the balance of power on bills that touch household budgets, from government funding and federal benefits to energy policy, which matters a great deal in Alaska. Watch for these milestones:
- Whether Mary Peltola crosses 50% once all ballots are counted
- Whether the race moves to ranked-choice tabulation on November 18
- The state's certification, targeted for November 25
- Any further court rulings related to the count
This article is for information only and is not financial, legal or voting advice. Results are unofficial until certified by the state.
Sources: Alaska Division of Elections; The Hill; Democracy Docket; The Center Square; Your Alaska Link; Federal News Network.
